Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2021, amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa e-China yayiyi-34.8GW, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-34.5%.Ukuthathela ingqalelo ukuba phantse isiqingatha somthamo ofakiweyo ngo-2020 uya kwenzeka ngoDisemba, izinga lokukhula kwawo wonke unyaka ka-2021 liya kuba lisezantsi kakhulu kunolindelo lwemarike.I-China Photovoltaic Industry Association yehlise uqikelelo lwalo lonyaka olufakelweyo lwamandla nge-10GW ukuya kwi-45-55GW.
Emva kwencopho yekhabhoni ngo-2030 kunye nenjongo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngo-2060 ibekwe phambili, zonke iindlela zobomi zikholelwa ngokubanzi ukuba imboni ye-photovoltaic iya kuzisa umjikelo wembali wophuhliso lwegolide, kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kulo lonke i-2021 kudale imeko yeshishini eligqithisileyo.
Ukusuka phezulu ukuya ezantsi, ikhonkco leshishini le-photovoltaic lahlulwe ngokufanelekileyo langamakhonkco amane okuvelisa: izixhobo zesilicon, ii-silicon wafers, iiseli kunye neemodyuli, kunye nophuhliso lwesikhululo samandla, ikhonkco elihlanu lilonke.
Emva kokuqala kuka-2021, ixabiso le-silicon wafers, i-cell conduction, i-glass superimposed, ifilimu ye-EVA, i-backplane, isakhelo kunye nezinye izinto ezincedisayo ziya kunyuka.Ixabiso lemodyuli yatyhalwa emva kwi-2 yuan / W kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo ngexesha lonyaka, kwaye iya kuba yi-1.57 ngo-2020. Yuan / W.Kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo okanye kunjalo, amaxabiso ecandelo alandele ngokusisiseko ingqiqo yokuhla ecalanye, kwaye ukuguqulwa kwexabiso ngo-2021 kuthintele ukuzimisela kokufaka izikhululo zamandla ezisezantsi.
Kwixesha elizayo, uphuhliso olungalinganiyo lwamakhonkco ahlukeneyo kwi-photovoltaic industry chain iya kuqhubeka.Ukuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngumba obalulekileyo kuzo zonke iinkampani.Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso kuya kunciphisa kakhulu izinga lokuthotyelwa kunye nokonakalisa isidima soshishino.
Ngokusekelwe kwixabiso eliphantsi lokulindela kwexabiso le-industry chain kunye nokugcinwa kweprojekthi yasekhaya enkulu, i-Photovoltaic Industry Association iqikelela ukuba amandla e-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa kwi-2022 kunokwenzeka ukuba adlule i-75GW.Phakathi kwabo, imozulu ye-photovoltaic esasazwayo ihamba ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye imarike iqala ukumila.
Ukukhuthazwa yienjongo ezimbini zekhabhoni, i-capital igxininise ukunyusa i-photovoltaics, umjikelo omtsha wokwandiswa kwamandla sele uqalile, ukugqithisa kwesakhiwo kunye nokungalingani kusekho, kwaye kunoko kuqinisa.Ngaphantsi komlo phakathi kwabadlali abatsha kunye nabadala, isakhiwo soshishino asinakuphepheka.
1, Kusekho unyaka olungileyo wezinto zesilicon
Ngaphantsi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2021, amakhonkco amane amakhulu okwenziwa kwe-photovoltaic aya kungalingani.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuSeptemba, amaxabiso ezinto ze-silicon, i-silicon wafers, iiseli zelanga, kunye neemodyuli zanda ngo-165%, 62.6%, 20%, kunye ne-10.8%, ngokulandelanayo.Ukunyuka kwexabiso kubangelwa ukunikezelwa okuphezulu kwezinto ze-silicon kunye nokunqongophala kwexabiso eliphezulu.Iinkampani ezigxininiswe kakhulu zesilicon wafer nazo zifumene ingeniso kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, inzuzo yancipha ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla amatsha okuvelisa kunye nokudinwa kwempahla yexabiso eliphantsi;ukukwazi ukudlula iindleko kwibhetri kunye neemodyuli ziphela Ngokuphawulekayo buthathaka, kwaye inzuzo yonakaliswe kakhulu.
Ngokuvulwa komjikelo omtsha wokhuphiswano lwamandla, ukuhanjiswa kwenzuzo kwicala lokuvelisa kuya kutshintsha ngo-2022: Izinto zeSilicon ziyaqhubeka nokwenza inzuzo, ukhuphiswano lwe-silicon wafer lubukhali, kwaye ibhetri kunye nemodyuli yenzuzo kulindeleke ukuba ibuyiselwe.
Kunyaka ozayo, ukubonelela ngokubanzi kunye nemfuno yezinto ze-silicon ziya kuhlala ziqinile, kwaye iziko lexabiso liya kuhla, kodwa eli khonkco liya kuhlala ligcina inzuzo ephezulu.Ngo-2021, unikezelo lulonke malunga neetoni ezingama-580,000 zezinto zesilicon ngokusisiseko zihambelana nemfuno yofakelo lweterminal;nangona kunjalo, xa kuthelekiswa nesiphelo se-silicon wafer esinomthamo wemveliso ongaphezulu kwe-300 GW, siyanqongophala, nto leyo ekhokelela kwinto yokungxama, ukuqokelela, kunye nokunyusa amaxabiso emarikeni.
Nangona iingeniso eziphezulu zezixhobo ze-silicon ngo-2021 zikhokelele ekwandeni kwemveliso, ngenxa yemiqobo ephezulu yokungena kunye nemijikelo yokwandisa imveliso emide, umsantsa kumthamo wemveliso kunye nee-silicon wafers kulo nyaka uzayo usaya kubonakala.
Ekupheleni kuka-2022, amandla okuvelisa i-polysilicon yasekhaya iya kuba yi-850,000 yeetoni / ngonyaka.Ukuthathela ingqalelo umthamo wemveliso yaphesheya, inokuhlangabezana nemfuno efakiweyo ye-230GW.Ekupheleni kuka-2022, kuphela iinkampani eziPhambili ze-silicon zafer eziya kongeza malunga ne-100GW yomthamo omtsha, kwaye umthamo opheleleyo wee-silicon wafers uya kufutshane ne-500GW.
Ukuthathela ingqalelo izinto ezingaqinisekanga ezinje ngesantya sokukhutshwa komthamo, izikhombisi zolawulo lokusetyenziswa kwamandla kabini, kunye nohlengahlengiso, umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa isilicon uya kuthintelwa kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, ubekwe ngaphezulu kwimfuno engqongqo esezantsi, kunye nokubonelela ngokulinganayo kunye nemfuno.Uxinzelelo lwezibonelelo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka luya kuthomalaliswa ngempumelelo.
Ngokubhekiselele kumaxabiso ezinto ze-silicon, isiqingatha sokuqala se-2022 siya kuncipha ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukuhla kunokukhawuleza kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ixabiso lonyaka linokuba yi-150,000-200,000 yeyuan/toni.
Nangona eli xabiso liwile ukusuka ngo-2021, lisephezulu ngokupheleleyo kwimbali, kwaye izinga lokusetyenziswa kwamandla kunye nenzuzo yabavelisi abahamba phambili baya kuqhubeka ukuhlala phezulu.
Ukukhuthazwa ngamaxabiso, phantse zonke izinto ezikhokelayo ze-silicon zasekhaya sele zilahlile izicwangciso zokwandisa imveliso yazo.Ngokuqhelekileyo, umjikelo wemveliso yeprojekthi ye-silicon imalunga neenyanga ezili-18, izinga lokukhululwa komthamo wemveliso licotha, ukuguquguquka kwamandla okuvelisa kuncinci, kwaye iindleko zokuqalisa kunye nokuvalwa ziphezulu.Nje ukuba i-terminal iqale ukulungelelanisa, ikhonkco lezinto zesilicon liya kuwela kwimeko yokungenzi nto.
Ukunikezelwa kwexesha elifutshane lezinto ze-silicon ziyaqhubeka ziqina, kwaye amandla okuvelisa aya kuqhubeka nokukhululwa kwiminyaka eyi-2-3 ezayo, kwaye ukunikezelwa kunokugqithisa imfuno kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide.
Okwangoku, umthamo wemveliso ocetywayo obhengezwe ziinkampani ze-silicon udlule iitoni ezizigidi ezi-3, ezinokuhlangabezana nemfuno efakiweyo ye-1,200GW.Uthathela ingqalelo umthamo omkhulu ophantsi kolwakhiwo, iintsuku ezilungileyo zeenkampani ze-silicon zinokuba ngu-2022 kuphela.
2
Ngo-2022, icandelo le-silicon wafer liya kungcamla isiqhamo esikrakra sokwandisa umthamo wemveliso kwaye libe lelona candelo likhuphisanayo.Inzuzo kunye nokugxila kwimizi-mveliso kuya kuncipha, kwaye iya kuthi ndlela-ntle kwixesha leminyaka emihlanu lengeniso ephezulu.
Ikhuthazwe ziinjongo ezimbini zekhabhoni, ingeniso ephezulu, inqanaba elisezantsi le-silicon wafer segment lithandwa kakhulu yinkunzi.Inzuzo egqithileyo ngokuthe ngcembe iyanyamalala ngokwandiswa komthamo wemveliso, kwaye ukonyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto zesilicon kukhawulezisa ukhukuliseko lwenzuzo ye-silicon wafer.Kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2022, ngokukhululwa komthamo omtsha we-silicon, imfazwe yexabiso inokwenzeka kwisiphelo se-silicon wafer.Ngelo xesha, inzuzo iya kucudiswa kakhulu, kwaye enye yemveliso yodidi lwesibini nolwesithathu inokurhoxa emarikeni.
Ngokubuyela umva kwezinto ze-silicon ezinyukayo kunye namaxabiso e-wafer, kunye nenkxaso yemfuno emandla esezantsi yomthamo ofakiweyo, inzuzo yeeseli zelanga kunye namalungu ngo-2022 iya kulungiswa, kwaye akusayi kubakho mfuneko yokubandezeleka ngenxa yokuqhekeka.
3, Ukuveliswa kwePhotovoltaic kuya kwenza indawo entsha yokhuphiswano
Ngokwale ngcaciso ingentla, eyona nxalenye ibuhlungu kakhulu ye-photovoltaic industry chain ngo-2022 yi-surplus enzima yee-silicon wafers, phakathi kwazo abavelisi be-silicon abakhethekileyo ngabona baninzi;ezona zonwabe kakhulu ziseziinkampani zezinto zesilicon, kwaye iinkokeli ziya kwenza eyona nzuzo ininzi.
Okwangoku, amandla enkxaso-mali yeenkampani ze-photovoltaic aphuculwe kakhulu, kodwa inkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe ibangele ukuhla kwexabiso le-asethi ngokukhawuleza.Kulo mongo, ukudityaniswa ngokuthe nkqo likrele elintlangothi-mbini, ngakumbi kumakhonkco amabini apho iibhetri kunye nezixhobo zesilicon zityalwe ngokugqithisileyo.Ukusebenzisana yindlela elungileyo.
Ngokuhlengahlengiswa kweengeniso zeshishini kunye nokunyuka kwabadlali abatsha, indawo ekhuphisanayo yeshishini le-photovoltaic ngo-2022 iya kuba neenguqu ezinkulu.
Ukukhuthazwa yienjongo ezimbini zekhabhoni, abatsha abasanda kungena batyala imali kwimveliso ye-photovoltaic, ezisa imingeni enkulu kwiinkampani zemveli ze-photovoltaic kwaye zingakhokelela kwiinguqu ezisisiseko kwisakhiwo seshishini.
Eli lixesha lokuqala kwimbali ukuba i-capital-cross-border ingene kwimveliso ye-photovoltaic kwinqanaba elikhulu.Abangeneleli abatsha basoloko benenzuzo yokuqalisa kade, kwaye abadlali abadala abangenalo ukhuphiswano olungundoqo banokuthi bapheliswe ngokulula ngabatsha abanobutyebi obutyebileyo.
4, Isikhululo samandla esabiweyo asiseyonxalenye yenkxaso
Isikhululo samandla likhonkco elisezantsi le-photovoltaics.Ngo-2022, isikhululo sombane esifakelweyo siya kubonisa izinto ezintsha.
Izityalo zamandla e-Photovoltaic zinokwahlulwa ngokufanelekileyo zibe ziindidi ezimbini: eziphakathi kwaye zisasazwe.Le yokugqibela yahlulahlulwe kwimizi-mveliso kunye nezorhwebo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwasekhaya.Ukuxhamla kwi-stimulus yomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wokuxhaswa kweesenti ezi-3 ngekilowatt-yure yombane, umthamo wokufakelwa komsebenzisi uye wanda kakhulu;ngelixa isakhono esifakwe kwindawo esembindini sinciphile ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuba nokwenzeka kokusasazwa komthamo ofakiweyo ngo-2021 kuya kubetha irekhodi eliphezulu, kwaye ubungakanani besakhono esifakiweyo sisonke siyakwandiswa.Ibekwe kwindawo yokuqala ezimbalini.
Ukusukela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Okthobha ka-2021, umthamo ofakiweyo osasaziweyo wawuyi-19GW, ibalwa malunga ne-65% yomthamo ofakiweyo uwonke kwangelo xesha, apho ukusetyenziswa kwekhaya kunyuke nge-106% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kwi-13.6GW, eyayiyeyona mthombo uphambili umthamo omtsha ofakiweyo.
Kwangexesha elide, imarike ye-photovoltaic esasazwayo iye yaphuhliswa kakhulu ngamashishini abucala ngenxa yokuhlukana kwayo kunye nobukhulu obuncinci.Amandla afakelwayo anokuthi afakwe kwi-photovoltaic esasazwayo kwilizwe idlula i-500GW.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokungaqondwa ngokwaneleyo kwemigaqo-nkqubo ngoorhulumente basekhaya kunye namashishini kunye nokungabikho kocwangciso lulonke, isiphithiphithi senzeke rhoqo kwimisebenzi yokwenene.Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwi-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, ubungakanani beeprojekthi zesiseko ezinkulu ezingaphezulu kwe-60GW ziye zabhengezwa e-China, kwaye isikali sokuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zamandla e-photovoltaic kumaphondo e-19 (imimandla kunye nezixeko) malunga ne-89.28 GW.
Ngokusekelwe kule nto, ukuphakamisa ukulindela okuphantsi kwexabiso le-chain chain chain, i-China Photovoltaic Industry Association iqikelela ukuba i-photovoltaic esanda kufakwa kwi-2022 iya kuba ngaphezu kwe-75GW.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-06-2022