I-Arhente yaMandla yamazwe ngamazwe (IEA) yathi nangona ixabiso leemveliso linyuka kunye nokunyuka kweendleko zokuvelisa, uphuhliso lwe-solar photovoltaic yehlabathi kulo nyaka lusalindeleke ukuba lunyuke nge-17%.
Kumazwe amaninzi kwihlabathi jikelele, iiprojekthi zelanga eziluncedo zibonelela ngelona xabiso liphantsi lombane omtsha, ngakumbi kwimeko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso egesi yendalo.I-IEA iqikelela ukuba kwi-2021, i-156.1GW yofakelo lwe-photovoltaic iya kongezwa kwihlabathi jikelele.
Oku kubonisa irekhodi entsha.Nangona kunjalo, eli nani lisesezantsi kunolunye uphuhliso kunye nokufakwa okulindelweyo.Iziko lophando iBloombergNEF liqikelela ukuba i-191GW yamandla elanga amatsha iya kufakwa kulo nyaka.
Ngokwahlukileyo koko, iMarike ye-IHS eqikelelweyo yokufakwa kwamandla elanga ngo-2021 yi-171GW.Isicwangciso sophuhliso esiphakathi esicetywe ngumbutho worhwebo iSolarPower Europe yi-163.2GW.
I-IEA ichaze ukuba inkomfa yokutshintsha kwemozulu ye-COP26 ibhengeze injongo enamandla kakhulu yamandla acocekileyo.Ngenkxaso eqinile yemigaqo-nkqubo karhulumente kunye neenjongo zamandla acocekileyo, i-solar photovoltaic "ihlala ingumthombo wokukhula kwamandla avuselelekayo."
Ngokutsho kwengxelo, ngo-2026, amandla avuselelweyo aya kuphendula malunga ne-95% yokunyuka kwamandla ehlabathi, kwaye i-photovoltaic yelanga yodwa iya kwenza ngaphezu kwesiqingatha.Umthamo we-photovoltaic ofakwe ngokupheleleyo uya kunyuka ukusuka malunga ne-894GW kulo nyaka ukuya kwi-1.826TW kwi-2026.
Ngaphantsi kwesiseko sophuhliso olukhawulezileyo, umthamo omtsha we-solar photovoltaic yonyaka uya kuqhubeka ukhula, ufikelele phantse kwi-260 GW ngo-2026. Iimarike eziphambili ezifana ne-China, iYurophu, i-United States, ne-Indiya zinezinga eliphezulu lokukhula, ngelixa iimarike ezikhulayo ezifana I-Afrika ekwi-sub-Sahara kunye noMbindi Mpuma nazo zibonisa ukukhula okubonakalayo okunokwenzeka.
UFatih Birol, uMlawuli oyiNtloko we-IEA, uthe ukunyuka kwalo nyaka kumandla ahlaziyekayo kuye kwabeka irekhodi, ebonisa ukuba omnye umqondiso uvela kuqoqosho olutsha lwamandla ehlabathi.
“Amaxabiso aphezulu eemveliso zorhwebo kunye namandla esiwabonayo namhlanje abeka imingeni emitsha kushishino lwamandla ahlaziyekayo, kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezibaso zefosili nako kwenza amandla ahlaziyekayo akhuphisane ngakumbi.”
I-IEA ikwacebise isicwangciso sophuhliso esikhawulezileyo.Esi sicwangciso sithatha ukuba urhulumente uzisombulule iingxaki zokuvumela, ukudityaniswa kweegridi, kunye nokungabikho komvuzo, kwaye unikezela ngenkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo ojoliswe kuyo ukuze ube nokuguquguquka.Ngokwesi sicwangciso, i-177.5GW ye-solar photovoltaic iya kuthunyelwa kwihlabathi jikelele kulo nyaka.
Nangona amandla elanga enyuka, iiprojekthi zamandla ahlaziyekayo amatsha kulindeleke ukuba zibe ngaphantsi kakhulu kunenani elifunekayo ukuze kuphunyezwe i-net-zero ephumayo ekujoliswe kuyo phakathi kule nkulungwane.Ngokwale njongo, phakathi kowama-2021 no-2026, izinga lokukhula komndilili wokuveliswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo liphantse liphindeke kabini lemeko engundoqo echazwe kwingxelo.
Ingxelo ye-Flegship ye-World Energy Outlook ekhutshwe yi-IEA ngo-Okthobha ibonisa ukuba kwi-IEA's 2050 net zero emission roadmap, umndilili wehlabathi wokunyuka kwe-solar photovoltaics ukusuka ku-2020 ukuya ku-2030 uya kufikelela kuma-422GW.
Ukunyuka kwexabiso le-silicon, intsimbi, i-aluminiyam, kunye nobhedu yinto engathandekiyo kumaxabiso eemveliso.
I-IEA ichaze kwingxelo yamva nje ukuba ngoku, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eemveliso kubeka uxinzelelo oluphezulu kwiindleko zotyalo-mali.Ukunikezelwa kwezinto eziluhlaza kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ombane kwezinye iimarike zongeze imingeni eyongezelelweyo kubavelisi be-solar photovoltaic kwixesha elifutshane.
Ukususela ekuqaleni kwe-2020, ixabiso le-polysilicon ye-photovoltaic-grade ine-polysilicon engaphezu kwe-quadruple, insimbi inyuke nge-50%, i-aluminium inyuke ngama-80%, kwaye ubhedu lunyuke ngama-60%.Ukongezelela, amaxabiso othutho ukusuka eTshayina ukuya eYurophu nakuMntla Merika nawo anyuke kabukhali, kwezinye iimeko izihlandlo ezilishumi.
I-IEA iqikelela ukuba iindleko zempahla zorhwebo nezothutho zibalelwa malunga ne-15% yexabiso lilonke le-utility solar photovoltaic investment.Ngokuthelekisa amaxabiso eemveliso eziqhelekileyo ukusuka kwi-2019 ukuya ku-2021, iindleko zotyalo-mali zizonke zezityalo zamandla e-photovoltaic zinokwenyuka malunga ne-25%.
Ukunyuka kwezinto zorhwebo kunye nokuthutha kuye kwachaphazela amaxabiso ekhontrakthi yeethenda zikarhulumente, kwaye iimarike ezifana ne-Spain kunye ne-Indiya zibone amaxabiso ekhontrakthi aphezulu kulo nyaka.I-IEA ichaze ukuba ukunyuka kwexabiso lezixhobo ezifunekayo kwizityalo zamandla e-photovoltaic kubangela umngeni kubaphuhlisi abaphumelele ukubhida kwaye balindele ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwiindleko zemodyuli.
Ngokutsho kwe-IEA, ukusuka ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2021, malunga ne-100GW yeeprojekthi ze-solar photovoltaic kunye ne-wind energy eziphumelele iibhidi kodwa ezingekafakwa ekusebenzeni zijongene nomngcipheko wokothuka kwexabiso lempahla, ezinokulibazisa ukuthunyelwa kweprojekthi.
Ngaphandle koku, ifuthe lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eemveliso kwimfuno yomthamo omtsha lilinganiselwe.Oorhulumente abakhange bamkele utshintsho olukhulu lomgaqo-nkqubo wokurhoxisa iithenda, kwaye ukuthengwa kweenkampani zophula enye irekhodi yonyaka nonyaka.
Nangona kukho umngcipheko wamaxabiso aphezulu exesha elide, i-IEA yathi ukuba amaxabiso eempahla kunye nempahla alula ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo, ukuhla kwexabiso le-photovoltaic yelanga kuya kuqhubeka, kunye nefuthe elide kule mfuno yeteknoloji. mhlawumbi iya kuba ncinane kakhulu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-07-2021